Will The Outcome Of Political Elections This Fall Be Affected By Online Video Inventory?
As Super Tuesday draws near and the political advertising budgets for this November's
election continue to target online video, publishers will see record breaking numbers in demand for their highly coveted inventory. Still, with this seemingly great news, many analysts say the coming monsoon of advertiser demand could be a blessing and a curse for online publishers.Publishers Seeing Unprecedented Demand
In a recent study, Mixpo found that in states which are crucial for the big win, demand could outpace supply by around 80 million impressions. Already, spending has been estimated to top 35.1 million during the election cycle alone, that's not counting all the revenue that top ComScore sites have seen earlier this year.
With the obvious knowledge that prices will rise dramatically this autumn some advertisers are buying large portions of top tier inventory now while they can still get in at prices they're accustomed to paying. All this has left practically no 'reserve' inventory to be bid on in states like Florida and Ohio where the race between Romey and Obama are particularly close. Meaning that even as traditional media wanes and news becomes more widely accessible, the size of the media buy still has a strong influence in the race.
The Dilemma
Now, everything stated above may appear to be all well and good for the publishers and even the industry at large, and it could prove to be the case. However, regular advertisers could be turned off by the inability to procure desired inventory, especially when you consider that many believe that online advertising, by its very nature, makes for a virtually limitless supply of inventory. If the inability to get inventory irritates current advertisers, it could easily cause newcomers to think the digital space is too complicated and make them get cold feet altogether.
What seems to be the most intriguing side effect of low video supply, whether artificial or not, is that inventory scarcity may create the opportunity for super PACs with deep pockets to hurt the opposition by snatching up massive blocks of inventory. This would provide more difficulty for unknown senatorial and congressional candidates to get exposure, making it nearly impossible to deliver their message to highly targetable audiences. It's generally accepted and if Obama's record 2008 spending is any further indication that the campaign with the biggest coffers will be the one that grabs the win.
In the end, regardless of political outcomes, one thing's for certain. Demand will continue to grow, and engaged audiences are out there. If online publishers are unable or unwilling to serve the demand this fall, it gives more fodder to media traditionalists that would say that online video is not the future, but merely second fiddle to television. Unprecedented demand for online video should be viewed as proof that the industry is ready to take center stage, not that it can't rise to the occasion.
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