Understanding the NFL Picks and Spread Betting
NFL football is probably the most favored sport in America when it comes to sports betting
. Many newspapers carry the betting odds and the games are shown on cable TV making them accessible to everyone. You also get a lot of websites dedicated to football betting. Because games are only played once a week, football is relatively easy to bet on and you have plenty of time in which to do your homework on the spreads. But, by the same token, football lines are pretty accurate and you have to do a lot of work with injury reports, availability of key players and so on in order to pick winning lines.
Here are some tips on how to pick winning lines:
Look around for these at every game. Statistically, spreads for 2, 2.5, 3 and 3.5 have the best chances of winning. This happens because many games are decided by field goals.
Previous performances have little impact because of the one-week period between games. Teams may not be able to sustain the previous momentum except when they are trying to erase the memory of a previous embarrassing loss. The injury situation can also change drastically for the better or the worse.
Injuries affect teams differently though many teams have pretty good depth in coverage. Injuries to skilled players such as quarterbacks or injuries to multiple players who play the same position can have an adverse effect. On the other hand, if the team has good cover, you may wish to bet on the injury because you would get better odds.
Beating the lines. You must understand how and why bookmakers set the lines. They are not particularly worried about who wins or loses but they are worried about the appearance of being fair. If the odds are seen as fair, the bets are likely to be evenly divided between the two teams and this is known as "dividing the action". The bookmaker wins no matter which team wins or loses because of the 5% to 10% commission charged on each bet. This commission is popularly known as the "vigorish" or vig for short.
Lines are not fixed. Depending on the situation, bookies will keep changing lines to ensure that the action continues to be divided. People will often rely more on sentiment and the newspaper headlines in making their bets. This gives you a prime opportunity to pick teams that have a better chance than the odds that they carry.
Betting the spread. The spread is the number of points that bookies add to the underdog and subtract from the favorite to equalize the position. If the team you bet on is +7, they are the underdogs and only need to lose by less than seven points for you to win your bet. The bookies set the spread to divide the action but it does not necessarily reflect the actual result of the game. You will win consistently if you spot a mismatch between the points spread and what you think will be the actual result of the game. Timing is also important because spreads can change depending on changes in weather conditions, late injuries and so on.
There are plenty of sources on the Internet from which free picks are available or you could opt for a paid service. Either way, use your common sense and your judgment to vet the picks before you place your bets.
Understanding the NFL Picks and Spread Betting
By: Jase Sherock
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