The First Quarter Of 2010, The Glass Business Is Forecasted To Go
National Bureau of Statistics has revealed the glass industry of profits
. Income of 45.2 billion before November, with 2.9% weight yield of 520 million boxes, with the increase of 2.2%, profits 2.2 billion, with increased 1227%, 4.9% profit margin, gross margin of 15.5%, an increase of4.7 percentage points.
September-November glass industry revenue 15.1 billion, the chain from June to August increased by 25%, yield 150 million weight cases, the chain increased 3.5% from June to August, profit 1.74 billion, the chain from June to August increased by 86%, profit margin 11.5 %, 22.5% gross margin, the chain increased by 5.8 percentage points from June to August.
We have established the "glass - soda ash and heavy oil price differential" model and the actual gross margin glass fitting R2 = 0.82, to better explain and track the actual profit. The profitability of the glass industry in November and we have established the "price gap" reflected in quite the same.
November "glass - soda ash and heavy oil price differential," 34.9, Central 12% more than in October, an increase of 322 percent. From September to November "price gap" increased by 3 consecutive months have been for 4 months more than 30 of them in November "price differential" scale new single month since 2006, a new high.
November BMI key enterprises glass price 83 yuan / weight box chain in October increased by 9% (annual average, decreased by 07-08), up 23% over the same period last year. In early December 64 cities in 9 cities of Central Glass price increase than the end of November, two cities fell, the other flat.
CPCIA11 price of 1270 yuan on soda ash, ring up 1.6%, with down about 19%; heavy oil price of 3510 yuan, up 8% in Central, with the drop of 11%. BC12 heavy soda on high-end price of East China, Central, an increase of 9% compared with November, December, Central, North China Petrochemical heavy oil price increase of 7% more than in November.
November output of 26.53 million Glass BMI weight key boxes, with the increase of 6%; selling glass 24.88 million weight cases, with the increase of 8%, in November sales rate of 94% glass. November export volume and value of the glass industry fell 41%, 45%, exports are still at the bottom of the bottom stage.
99 years since the law of glass is increased or decreased gross margin are 5-8 quarters, started to rise in Q2 of this year. According to the current real estate new construction and pipe production next 2-3 quarters will be the peak demand, so you can expect the peak of the sustainable earnings from next 2-3 quarters.
The worst this year in one quarter, two quarter recovery, expected next year, the majority of glass 1-2 quarterly earnings would be substantial growth, focusing on tracking the CSG, Fuyao, Jin Jing time should have forecasted to notice between now and next year 2-quarter earnings still rising cycle.
2010, PE20 three times the glass, with broader market new energy similar to but less than 28 times. Comparative advantage in the valuation of new energy, the next two quarters are forecasted to go up, put out the first half of building energy efficiency policies, a quarter involved once again in CSG, Jin Jing, Fuyao. Real estate policy is risk.
The First Quarter Of 2010, The Glass Business Is Forecasted To Go
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