Managed Accounts Share Trading Notification - Fmg Purchase
Good afternoon,
On Friday we purchased a position in Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) at just under $4.20 per share. The purchase brings our market exposure to around 70% with 60% of this amount protected with put options.
There has been a lot of economic reports released over the past two weeks, the results of which have changed our opinion to the positive for the broader prospects for equity markets. Almost without exception, economic data has been ahead of consensus expectations.
For example, US housing data rebounded extremely strongly, iron ore prices bounced in China after a period of weakness and the vast majority of S&P 500 companies have reported ahead. I read just this morning that a major hedge fund investor who is well known within the
managed investments community has doubled his fund's holdings of US equities in the past week to 70% from 35% after selling out just three weeks ago, citing that data had well and truly exceeded his own internal forecasts.
There are certainly some sectors of our market that are weak and in our view likely so for some time. Consumer discretionary is having a hard time due to relentless RBA rate rises and insurance companies are finding that their margins are getting further squeezed (QBE yesterday had another downgrade). However other sectors are doing much better such as raw materials, mining and mining services, Australian banks and media.
With the market trading shy of 4500 points we felt that the broad strength of raw economic data coupled with the opposing consensus view of that data falling short of expectations could pretty easily add few hundred points to the index. The medium term risk is now firmly to the upside, and we needed to add some exposure in those areas where the data matched the investment.
In that case, iron ore prices are beginning to rise again and Chinese stockpiles are falling. FMG is a stock with a strong investment case; recent quarterly results shows the company produced free cash flows of $500M for that quarter. Technically, the share price has formed a base at $4.00 - which tells us the base case for FMG, all things being equal, is $4.00 and upside potential due to the surprise strength in economic data is around $5.00.
As it stands, the Australian market has been trailing the strength in the US. But with money now flowing into Australian Dollars we expect the ASX to play catch up for a little while now, and we don't want to be underinvested as it does it.
If you would like to speak with us about anything at all, please call the desk.
by: Hayden Kerr
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