How to Pick Away Bets in Australian Football
How to Pick Away Bets in Australian Football
Many punters do not realise that the Australian Football match results sequences are quite different to UK and European results. There are patterns which can only be identified by digging deeply into the results and performance statistics. The smart punter can use this information to help pick the most likely away bets, and it is not hard to do if you know the tricks.
Unexpected Patterns
Analysis shows that there are a number of strange patterns of results. Teams which lose at home are much more likely to win away on their next match than would be the case in Europe. This is a sort of bounceback' effect and is quite noticeable.
Win/Draw/Lose Runs
Sequences of wins, draws and losses tend to be longer than in the UK. As I am writing this, the following form is evident for the current week:
Western Australia Premier Division, Joondalup, last 4 results DDDD
Western Australia Division 1, SW Phoenix, last 4 results WWWW
Western Australia Division 1, Queens Park, last 4 results LLLL
South Australia State League, Northern District, last 4 results WWWW
Tasmania North Premier League, Burnie, last 4 results LLLL
Tasmania North Premier League, Launceston, last 4 results LLLL
There are other examples on this coupon, which is typical. The reasons are mainly due to the fact that the range of performance difference within a given league is very wide. The playing standards of the top teams in a league are way beyond those of the lower teams. In a given match, you might see a team with a performance rating 220 playing a team rated at 10. This is clearly going to be one sided, and it helps us.
How Does this Help Us Pick Away Bets?
Eliminate any matches which are likely to be one-sided strong Homes.
Check the form ratings of the teams and identify a couple of dozen matches as going to be one sided, and maybe a dozen of these which are likely to be Aways. We then check these for 'Home Loss in last match/Away match next' these are a very good indicator of Aways (in about half of these matches).
Then look more closely at the remaining matches (which are not so one sided) and identify further Home Loss last match/Away match next' teams. If the opponents are not far ahead in terms of performance rating (in which case they would be in our previous list above), then mark these as likely Aways. These are lower probability Away forecasts.
Yes, The Bookies Know This
The bookies are aware of these quirks and that is why the pools companies look for more Away forecasts on Australian coupons. In the UK coupons, the pools companies offer a 4 Aways' pool. For Australian football they have been looking for more Away matches, maybe 6.
How Can We Cover This?
One way is to take the fixed odds betting and place say an Any six aways from 10' bet. This is 210 separate bets not all bookies will take this. Taking maybe 7 from 10 reduces this to 120 bets, or 8 from 10 gives 45 bets. It goes without saying that the minimum stake a bookie will take is obviously a big factor in the overall cost.
One More Thing
To make all this gel for you, you have to have access to a good performance rating system so that you can narrow down your list of likely Away win forecasts.
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