There Are No Gurus | Macro Millionaire Coaching Program and Trading Service Global Market Comments

There Are No Gurus | Macro Millionaire Coaching Program and Trading Service Global Market Comments

Macro Millionaire Featured Trades:

(THERE ARE NO GURUS)

(WHAT ABOUT ASSET ALLOCATION)

(BE CAREFUL. YOUR PC IS WATCHING)

From the desk of John Thomas The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Tuesday, March 29, 2010

There Are No Gurus.

If there was ever an argument that you should rely on independent newsletters for guidance about financial markets, such as The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader, and not traditional brokerage houses, take a look at the chart below from JP Morgan.

It shows that despite all of the reforms passed after the dotcom crash, less than 3% of broker reports come with "sell" or "hold/sell" ratings. If an investment bank's analyst dislikes a stock, they will simply drop coverage, rather than lose potentially lucrative business or risk potential law suits.

If individual investors are going to have a prayer of keeping their heads above water in the "new normal," it will only be through studying truly unbiased sources and drawing their own conclusions. Despite many pretenders, there are no real "gurus" out there, no matter how hard you look.

If this reality is too hard to face, get used to the 0.01% you are earning in your money market fund, or the 0.19% you get with six month Treasury bills. These ultra low short rates are going to be around for a while.

What About Asset Allocation?

Asset allocation is the one question that I get every day which I absolutely cannot answer. The reason is simple: no two investors are alike. The answer varies whether you are young or old, have $1,000 in the bank or $10 million, are a sophisticated investor or an average Joe, in the top or the bottom tax bracket, and so on. This is something you should ask your financial advisor, if you haven't fired him already, which you probably should.

Having said all that, there is one old hard and fast rule which you should probably dump. It used to be prudent to own your age in bonds. So if you were 70, you should have had 70% of your assets in fixed income instruments and 30% in equities.

Given the extreme over valuation of all bonds today, I would completely ignore this rule and own none. That leaves cash, precious metals, commodities, and equities in which to concentrate your portfolio, and right now, cash is looking pretty good.

Allocation: Are You Him?

Or Him?

Be Careful. Your PC is Watching.

Hey! You there, staring at this monitor. This is your PC talking to you. No, not you over there standing in the background. I'm talking to the guy sitting in front of me poking at my keys. Ouch! That one hurt!

So you thought no one was watching, did you? Let me straighten you out. About a month ago you clicked on a certain website, and I installed myself as a cookie on your computer, which is an innocuous little text file that you can't see. Since then, I have been tracking your every move, recording websites you clicked on, the pages you visited, and the stuff you ordered. I then used this handy little algorithm to build a profile of exactly who you are. I now know you better than your own mother. In fact, I know you better than you know yourself.

For example, I am aware that you make more than $250,000 a year, live in a posh zip code in San Francisco, belong to a fancy country club, and drive a Mercedes. You donate to Republican political causes, send your kids to a prestigious private school, and bill it all to an American Express Platinum Card. Did I leave anything out?

Because I know every detail of your life, down to your inside leg measurement, I am able to harness the power of this machine to more precisely service your every need. That includes directing advertising to you, which you have a high probability of clicking on. The more you click on my ads, the higher prices I can realize for those ads. The ad campaigns you now see are unique to your own personal computer because they are tied to your IP address. My program, called "behavioral targeting" is the next "big thing" in online advertising. It's all part of the brave new world.

I see you have been shopping for a new car. Check out the new Hyundai at http://www.hyundaiusa.com/ , which offers the same quality as your existing ride, at half the price. Your clicks this morning suggest you're taking your "significant other" out to dinner tonight. Might I suggest Gary Danko's on Bay Street at http://www.garydanko.com/site/bio.html ? The rack of lamb is to die for there. Your visits to http://www.travelocity.com/ and http://www.expedia.com/ tell me you're planning a vacation. I bet you didn't know you can find incredible deals in Las Vegas at http://www.visitlasvegas.com/vegas/index.jsp . Thinking about buying a condo there? They'll even pay for the trip if you promise to check one out while you're there.

Since we're chatting here mano a mano, I noticed that that last pair of jeans you ordered from http://us.levi.com/home/index.jsp had a 42-inch waist, up from the 40's in your last order. Better lay off those cheeseburgers. Pretty soon, they'll be calling you "tubby" or "fatso". Better visit http://www.weightwatchers.com/Index.aspx soon, or the legs on that chair might buckle out from under you.

Worried about privacy? Privacy, shmivacy. There hasn't been privacy in this country since the first social security number was handed out in 1936. And don't expect any relief from Congress. I doubt half those dummies even know how to turn on their own PC's.

Don't even think about trying to delete me. I'm a "flash cookie", an insidious little piece of code that reinstalls every time you try that. Think of me as a toenail fungus. Once you catch me, I'm almost impossible to get rid of.

I hope you don't mind, but I've been passing your personal details around to some of my buddies at other websites. That's why when you clicked on http://www.nfl.com/ you got deluged with product offers from your local team, the San Francisco 49ers. I've got friends at Google, Facebook, MySpace, and pretty much everywhere. Can I help it if I'm a popular guy? I bet the view from those 50 yard seats is great, isn't it?

I noticed that your spending habits don't exactly match with the income you reported on your last tax return. Do you think the IRS would like to know about that? I bet you didn't know the agency offers a 10% reward for turning in tax cheats.

How did you like those triple X DVD's you bought last week? Whoa! Hot, hot, hot! I hope your employer never finds out about those. It might not go down too well at your next performance review.

I thought it was lovely that you bought your spouse a two carat, yellow, vvs1, round cut diamond ring for $26,000 from http://www.bluenile.com/ for your 30th wedding anniversary. But who is Lolita, the Argentine firecracker, in Miami Beach? Does the old wifey know you sent her a $2,000 pair of diamond stud earrings? What's it worth to you for me to keep mum on this? Maybe you should take a quick peak at http://www.divorcelawfirms.com/ and see what you're in for?

Naw, I'm just pulling your leg. This is all just between friends, right? Think of it as a doctor/patient relationship. I'll tell you what. See that leaderboard ad at the top of the page? Just click on that and we'll call it even. Oooh that felt good! Click it again. Oh, baby! Not too many times. You'll trigger my anti click fraud program.

Now you see that wide skyscraper add over on the right? Click on that too. Oh baby! Click it again! And there's a little button ad at the bottom of the page. No, not that one. A little lower. What was that little cutie's name in Miami again? Aaaaah.

Quote of the Day

"The banks are effectively zombie banks, because their consumer and commercial assets are not growing and their fee businesses are getting crushed. You're looking at very low return vehicles," said Meredith Whitney, CEO of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group.

If you'd like to sit side by side with John Thomas and let him help you multiply your portfolio like a winning hedge-fund manager then he's happy to mentor you and share his specific trades as he makes them just click here to get details on his breakthrough Macro Millionaire coaching program & trading service

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