Macro Millionaire Coaching Program Global Market Comments | Japan: Here Comes the "V"

Macro Millionaire Coaching Program Global Market Comments | Japan: Here Comes the "V"

Macro Millionaire Featured Trades:

(PARIS STRATEGY LUNCHEON)

(JAPAN: HERE COMES THE "V"), (EWJ), (FXY)

(THE BEAR MARKET IN BONDS IS STILL SLEEPING), (TLT)

(PALLADIUM), (PLATINUM), (PALL), (PPLT)

From the desk of John Thomas The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Wednesday, March 30, 2010

Last Chance to Participate in the April 8 Paris Strategy Luncheon.

Come join me for lunch for at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Paris, France on Friday, April 8, 2011. A three course lunch will be followed by a 45 minute PowerPoint presentation and a 45 minute question and answer period.

I'll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I'll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be tossed at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $289.

I'll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at a prestigious private club in the City of Light's central Opera district, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.

Japan: Here Comes the "V".

I received a call from a friend in Osaka last night. It was scratchy, kept cutting in and out, and was barely comprehensible. I think I heard some fish talking in the background. There are so many companies attempting to track down alternative sources of parts in Japan these days that a lot of traffic is being routed away from satellites to the old trans Pacific undersea cables, which are normally used for large data transfers.

Osaka was packed with refugees from Tokyo. Anyone with relatives in this massive city 300 miles west of Tokyo had moved for the duration, at least until the nuclear thing blew over. Tokyo water and supplies were testing positive for radioactive Iodine, infants were limited to drinking bottled water, the rolling power outages were annoying, and there was no food anyway. All trains heading west were packed. I learned with great relief that the one friend I had in Sendai, a former analyst of mine, was on vacation in Thailand chasing girls. Thank goodness for small mercies.

Given the news from Japan yesterday, those visitors to Osaka may have to start looking for long term leases. Radioactive plutonium is leaking into the ground at the troubled Fukushima plant. The only way this could have happened is for there to have been a partial core melt down at one of the reactors. This highly unstable element has a half-life of 2 billion years, which means the entire site will have to be entombed in concrete, permanently taking all six reactors there off line. There were rumors that Tokyo Electric Power would be nationalized, and the distressed company was seen attempting to raise $25 billion in emergency financing in the market place. Suffice to say that one way or the other, this company is toast.

I was most fascinated by the new GDP forecasts put out by JP Morgan, which were remarkably similar to the ones I put out two weeks ago. The latest estimate for the Sendai damage is $300 billion, which means that the country has to spend 6% of GDP to get whole again. Morgan sees the same "V" scenario that I did, with Japanese growth shrinking as much as -1% in the first half of 2011, then roaring back to a 3.5% rate in the second half. The "V" goes global, with the impact of the multiple disasters creating a drag on the world economy of -1.2% in the first half, followed by a rebound of 1.3% in the second half. The car industry is expected to lose production of 650,000 units this year. That is a lot of cars.

In the meantime, take a look at the chart below of the Japan ETF. My call not to buy the initial dead cat bounce turned out to be the right one.

The Greatest Rebuilding Opportunity of the Century

The Bear Market in Bonds is Still Sleeping.

I just wanted to give you this updated technical chart of the long dated bond ETF (TLT), showing that the bear market in bonds is indeed on "PAUSE". This will be music to the ears of my Macro Millionaire followers, who are raking in the coins running a short in the (TLT) June $86 puts. Although we have already taken in half the profit on this position, running it seems to be in order. While yields could climb from here, and prices fall, I doubt they will reach the 5.2% the 30 year would need to reach to get the (TLT) to break below our strike of $86.

Keep in mind that this is a short term counter trend trade in the midst of a long term bear market in bonds. We will certainly break below $86 in the (TLT), but not until our options expire. In a market that isn't giving you much to work with these days, this one seems to be a winner.

Wake Me Up in June

Check Out the Dip in Palladium.

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Quote of the Day

"We don't have markets any more, we have theater. The Fed, the Bank of Japan, and the Peoples Bank of China all wants to play the manipulation game," said James Rickards of Tangent Capital Partners.

If you'd like to sit side by side with John Thomas and let him help you multiply your portfolio like a winning hedge-fund manager then he's happy to mentor you and share his specific trades as he makes them just click here to get details on his breakthrough Macro Millionaire coaching program & trading service

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