The Fourth Quarter Will Decline Further Narrowing Trade - Foreign Trade - The Machine Tool Industry
Narrowed further decline before the end of trade
, but the restoration of resistance increase2009 years of China's foreign trade in the end what is potential? Ministry of Commerce recently issued the "China foreign trade report (Autumn Edition)" gives the answer: With the steady foreign demand, effects of various policy measures to further show, with the fourth quarter of last year, a relatively low base of foreign trade, import and export of this year, months after the fall expected to further narrow or even a slight rebound. Combination of all factors, is expected to decline throughout the year will be China's imports and exports narrowed to 20%.
The report that this year China's foreign trade experienced unprecedented difficulties, but from abroad, the world economic trend of increasing positive changes in the international financial markets stabilize, the United States and Europe and other developed economies on the end of the first quarter of the free drop-down style of the situation, recession and slow recovery and trends, the main leading indicators continued to improve. International Monetary Fund (IMF) on economic growth forecast, raised by a -1.4% -1.1%. This will help stabilize the international market, low demand, meaning its rebound from the Canton Fair is also held in the fall can be seen.
Home, the first three quarters of the scale of China's foreign trade statistics show that the gradual expansion of decline narrowed. The Government will further implement the export tax rebate, export credit insurance and financing guarantees and other policies, stability and the gradual return of foreign trade. This will help to enhance confidence and improve the external business environment. Of course, the global economic recovery will be slow and tortuous process, shrinking external demand situation and the impact continues. Growing trade protection, especially for China trade friction significantly increased, further increase China's exports to resume resistance.
Even if world economic recovery next year, the sharp rebound in foreign demand is difficult to
For everyone concerned about the direction of foreign trade next year, the Ministry of Commerce of the responsible person, on the present situation, in 2010 facing the development of China's foreign trade tends to improve the overall environment. However, as the world economy, many deep-rooted contradictions and problems yet to be fundamentally resolved, the development of China's foreign trade in 2010 is still facing a series of uncertain factors of instability.
This, not only difficult to rebound in foreign demand, self-care of major economies next year will increase. Since different countries in the process of economic recovery, international policy Cooperation Will weaken the coordination more difficult to handle well the process will affect the world economic recovery. Domestic pressure, the major economies to give priority to solving domestic employment, industrial development and other issues, continue to produce a variety of trade restrictions and protective measures. Even if world economic recovery, international trade will not rebound sharply. IMF forecasts global trade in goods in 2010 increased only 2.7%, lower than the expected world economic growth.
Also, after the current round of crisis, developed countries proposed to revitalize the manufacturing sector, a number of countries also expressed through the expansion of exports to ease domestic trade deficit. Overall competitiveness of exports in many developing countries to rise further, and may continue through the current devaluation of the fierce competition for international markets and other means. This will make China the field of high-end products next year in the face of the developed countries in direct competition, the traditional advantage of product areas in developing countries face more challenges.
In addition, once the world economic recovery setback in the international commodity price volatility may be high, increasing the risk of Chinese enterprises import and export business. In the increasingly intense international competition, "China" will face more downward pressure on prices, corporate profit margins will be further compressed, reducing its development potential.
Emerging markets and "going out" a play, into a bright spot on Trade in Services Qiangzai
However, we should also see a full range of Chinese industries, enterprises competitive, to maintain next year, there are many favorable conditions for foreign trade. Especially in recent years, foreign trade enterprises after the yuan appreciation, export tax rebate rate down, the processing trade policy tightening, rising labor costs, shrinking external demand such tests continue to strengthen response capabilities. Over the years, trade between China and the emerging markets is relatively small, the total trade "cake" in the proportion is still high, trade and economies of scale between the two sides do not match the economic strength of emerging markets is growing, and I have also become increasingly trade facilitation, development is very big.
Industry in 2010, "going out" effect on the export-led high hopes. Financial crisis, some foreign companies out of financial difficulties and will enhance international cooperation, some countries and regions relatively loose policy of attracting foreign investment and to invest heavily in infrastructure to stimulate the economy, which for the Chinese enterprises to accelerate the "go" to provide a good opportunity become a focal important channel for Chinese exports.
It is noteworthy that China's service trade, trade in goods is expected to lead to achieve recovery, re-enter the relatively fast access. 2010, China import and export transport demand will continue to grow at the same time as an important exporter of shipping services, international trade, exports of services will be provided by the shipping obviously warmer. Next year will be quickly cross-border tourism services by the year out of the woods there, because in addition to good prospects for the world economic recovery, the Shanghai World Expo will be to attract a major highlight of inbound tourists, domestic demand for outbound tourism in the medium and long term stability increase. Financial services and intermediary services, professional growth potential, after a period of time to adjust, it will then become the main growth in trade in services.
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