Lower paper industry is expected to last two years, the economy - paper, paper industry - Paper Indu

Lower paper industry is expected to last two years

, the economy - paper, paper industry - Paper Indu

According to China's economic trends and the future Papermaking The current status of the industry and the amount of per capita consumption of paper products, long term, China's paper industry is able to sustain the economy. However, given the following factors, paper industry, the economy declined in 2009, is expected to average growth rate of the past three years, nearly 13% to 8%. Paper industry is expected to last two years the economy lower. 1, the global economic downturn's effect on the paper industry. Divided into two parts: First, the direct export of the product. After the first several years of rapid expansion, China Paper Basically from import substitution to export changes. Statistics show the more obvious this year, a decline in exports, export growth fell. Second, as with the packaging products exports. Europe and the United States is China's largest trading partner, our two regions accounted for 23% of the total level of exports. From the exchange point of view, as Europe and the United States economy has gradually declined relative to the RMB exchange rate down step by step, the RMB appreciation will gradually reduce foreign demand for goods exports to China. This mainly involves the kinds of Wrapper Present Packaging paper Proportion of domestic demand in the higher paper in 2007 about 60%, of which exports accounted for a considerable proportion of the export growth rate fell a greater impact on the packaging industry. 2, the domestic economic slowdown had resulted in Paper products Demand. Paper products demand a high correlation with GDP, from the situation in recent years, growth in domestic demand for paper products, basic and GDP growth in sync. Domestic economic growth since the second quarter started down from the peak, demand for paper products affected slightly reduced in the future with the further reduction in economic growth and export markets shrink, the paper consumption growth will decline further. 3, energy saving paper inhibited the new capacity. According to the paper industry development policies, the current scale of investment to be 300,000 tons, and technical transformation needs 10 million metric tons, according to an average investment of 5,000 per tonne, the investment threshold in more than 500 million, more than 1.5 billion new. Tightening of domestic credit in the context of small-scale paper mill capacity expansion basically impossible. Therefore, the capacity of delivery will be focused on large scale paper mill. In fact, from the current understanding of the market situation, "during" most of the production run in the 10-30 million tons of basic. In addition, a limited scale, the state Environmental protection Council also set the paper industry environmental standards for new and existing projects in the emission allowance made stringent requirements. These two policies will have a major impact on the industry, new capacity inhibiting paper. But the future will continue to enhance the industrial concentration. View of the above three factors and the PPI index rising domestic enterprises and is expected to face the future of the industry in general upward pressure on costs, new capacity will be more carefully planned, approval will be stricter, and capacity will be concentrated in a certain scale enterprises, competition will become more rational. Industry will decline in the economy. The corresponding total demand for paper-making machinery will also be reduced, but high energy, high-profile, high efficiency, demand for paper-making machinery will gradually increase the growth rate.

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