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E-Mini Trading: Should You Trade Inside the Channel or Outside the Channel?

E-Mini Trading: Should You Trade Inside the Channel or Outside the Channel?

E-Mini Trading: Should You Trade Inside the Channel or Outside the Channel

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On any given day, a chart of any e-mini contract will display a number of price action formations. According to statistics (and statisticians vary on their assessment of the frequency of trending patterns and consolidating patterns), the market will spend about 30% to 40% of the time in a trending pattern and about 60% to 70% in a consolidating pattern. The general line of thinking is to avoid trading the consolidating patterns and focus on the trending patterns, and I certainly agree with this assessment.

Trading with the trend has long been a maxim in the e-mini trading vernacular, with good reason. Quite simply, if the market is moving upward it behooves a trader to trade in the direction the market is moving. Of course, the same holds true if the market is moving to the downside. I have taken some rather unfortunate e-mini trading entries with the trend and have been saved by virtue of trading with the trend. In short, these entries were poorly timed but the trend saved the trade from a disastrous result. Such is the nature of the trend.

After a trend reaches its apex it usually retraces a bit and then retests the previous high. It is not unusual for the final stages of a trend to begin a sideways direction and form a consolidation pattern, or channel. These channels can be very difficult to trade and many a small trader as deposited sizable portions of their trading account trying to trade in the channel. The general rule of thumb is to avoid trading and inside the channel and look for potential breakouts or breakdowns.

But there is a problem here, the percentage of successful breakouts versus unsuccessful breakouts is fairly high when trading out of the channel. Why? When the market is in a channel formation the buyer and seller counts are fairly even, or the market can be described as being in equilibrium. Logically, the market is likely to pull a certain portion of breakouts or breakdowns back into the channel or equilibrium. This can be fairly frustrating.

On the other hand, I love to trade certain kinds of channel formations;

If the channel is at least three ES points wide, there exist some interesting trading possibilities. Though I would caution that this type of trading can be tricky and you need not walk away from your computer for any period of time.

It is important to shorten their profit targets to six ticks and be happy with that smaller profit objective. Inside the channel, long protracted moves are rare.

Only take trades when the price action has hit the resistance line or support line of the channel, and you must take a trade in the opposite direction of the price action moving towards the support or resistance line. To say the least, this is a leap of faith.

You must be aware that at any point the market may, in fact, breakout or breakdown. To be sure, you can count on the market breaking out or breaking down at some point during your channel trading. A quick hand on the flatten button will avert disaster.

This is high-risk trading and probably best avoided by brand new traders.

In I often trade this way between 11 AM CST and 12:30 PM CST when the market is not moving very fast and dominated by smaller traders.

Not all the trading public will agree with this trading methodology, but I can attest to the fact that it can be very effective if the channel is wide enough and the price action is bouncing between support and resistance. It's important to reduce your profit targets as you can generally only capture six ticks in each move. It's worth considering, and you might even give it a shot sometimes. Under the right conditions, it can be an effective trading method.

In summary, we have discussed a method for trading inside the channel and listed some criterion that will facilitate channel trading. The channel ought to be at least three ES points wide and it's important only take trades at the extremes, or at support and resistance. These traits should be in the opposite direction of the price action. Good luck with channel trading and trade smart.
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E-Mini Trading: Should You Trade Inside the Channel or Outside the Channel? Seattle