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Cheltenham Festival 2011 Guide - Day Three
Cheltenham Festival 2011 Guide - Day Three
2:40 Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Steeple Chase) Grade 1 2m5f
Poquelin, runner-up behind Albertas Run in this contest last year when sent off 11-4 favourite, is again the ante-post market leader, this time at around 4-1. He landed the Vote AP Gold Cup over course and distance last time out in December, carrying a lot weight on his way to beating some smart horses. He has followed the same path as last season and he has every right to be in the mix again. However, his current odds are too short and there are a couple of interesting contenders lurking below that make more appeal at bigger odds. Tranquil Sea finally won his first Grade 1 in the John Durkan at Fairyhouse in January and has a previous course win to his name. He is currently available at around 7-1 and he has the potential to shorten considerably on the day. Tempting as he is, it may be a wiser option to side with the rapidly-improving Riverside Theatre, who looks a solid bet at 7-1. He finished twelve lengths behind stablemate Long Run in the King George VI Chase at Kempton before impressing in the Grade 1 Ascot Betfair Chase over 2m6f on his latest start. That win marked him down as a leading contender for this race and he should arguably be favourite. Kalahari King has his limitations at this level and Albertas Run was pulled up on his last start in January, leaving him with some questions to answer.
Horse to follow - Riverside Theatre, 7-1 (Blue Square/Paddy Power)
3:20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 3m
A month ago, many would have nominated the Paul Nicholls-trained Big Buck's as their banker of this year's Festival. But, with the emergence of a live contender in the shape of Grands Crus, his followers are getting twitchy. Big Buck's hasn't tasted defeat for over two years and has racked up an astonishing ten consecutive hurdle wins, including five Grade 1s, since unseating over fences in November 2008. He has landed back-to-back renewals of this race and was as short as 4-7 to make it three in a row not so long ago. However, he is now available at even money with William Hill, which could arguably represent massive value, because of the improvement in form shown by David Pipe's Grands Crus, currently as short as 2-1. The six-year-old has shot up 43lb in the ratings since the start of the season and looks a live contender on the evidence of his mightily impressive win in the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle over course and distance in January. Grands Crus is clearly on the upgrade and if he turns up in the same form as last time, he ought to be the first horse to provide Big Buck's with his first real test for a long time. At the prices, though, Big Buck's offers very good value at around even money and it may be best to side with proven form over considerable potential.
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