Forex Forecasts: 7 Fundamental Indicators
The forex market is driven by economic forces
, so forex forecasts depend to a large extent on economic or fundamental indicators. These form the basis of the financial news and announcements that you can see coming up on a forex calendar.
Of course, some of these economic factors are more important than others in terms of currency prices. Some will pass with scarcely a ripple on the surface of the market. Others have the power to shake the forex market by its roots and overturn even the biggest trends. So which are the ones that you must keep track of for your forex forecasts? Here we list the 7 top fundamental indicators for the currency market.
1. Interest rate
An interest rate change in any of the major financial powers (USA, Britain, Japan, Germany, etc) can have a huge effect on currency prices. Even if you are trading a pair that does not include that particular currency, you are likely to see a knock on effect. Interest rates are the biggest driving force for the forex market.
This is because the interest rate is one of the strongest and fastest indicators of a country's economic performance. Investors are looking to invest in countries with a strong performance, so a rise in the interest rate will immediately attract investors. This affects currency prices because they must in effect buy that country's currency in order to invest in its stocks. It will also, clearly, affect the currency of other countries where they will selling investments in order to buy into the new strong country.
Interest rate changes in turn are driven by other factors which the central banks will watch in order to decide whether a change in the interest rate is needed. This means that instead of waiting for the interest rate to change and affect the market, you too can watch these other indicators and formulate your own forex forecasts from them. The remaining 6 factors will all be used by central banks as indicators of a country's performance.
2. Consumer Price Index or CPI
A high index (high prices) reflects a strong economy.
3. Producers' Price Index or PPI
This is the cost of materials for manufacturers etc. When these rise, the price rises will be passed on to consumers, which leads to a higher CPI (inflation) and perhaps a rise in the interest rate.
4. Gross Domestic Product or GDP
The GDP is like the accounts sheet of the whole nation. Results are reported every quarter and economists generally take this as the strongest indicator of the nation's economic performance. Again a high GDP may be a signal that interest rates could be rising.
5. Payroll Employment
National payroll figures are a measure of the employment situation in the country. This index is also high when the economy is strong.
6. Retail Sales
This figure records the total receipts of retail stores in the nation, indicating consumer spending and confidence.
7. Durable Goods Orders
This is a measure of the value of orders placed with manufacturers.
So increases in all of these factors will indicate a strong economy and probably strong currency values. Do be aware, however, that sometimes a result may be announced which is less of a rise (or fall) than the market expected. This applies particularly to GDP and interest rates. In this case the market will have moved in anticipation of the change, and when the announcement comes and is less of a change than expected, it could cause a backlash. So even if you watch the indicators, forex forecasts can sometimes catch you out.
by: James Roshwood
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