Analysis Of Chemical Fiber Textile Industry Boom Of The Apparent Recovery In The Industry

Chemical industry products and raw materials continued widening spreads

, PTA and EG prices will remain shocks, and polyester, spandex, nylon and viscose prices quickly rose. Downstream from a chemical point of view, the textile industry to improve production and foreign demand is determined. Therefore, the chemical fiber industry, the current boom of high profits, but the ability to maintain this trend, depending on the downstream and the industry's own level of inventory and capacity utilization.

From the perspective of inventory, PTA plant operating rates since late last year continued to maintain above 90%, social stock high, and relatively high inventory of polyester. But we believe that at this stage downstream demand against the background of rapid recovery, slightly higher inventory is not the main issue, the key is the upstream and downstream industry chain, the operating rate of industry change. First look at the major chemical fiber raw material PTA, since the second half of 2009, although the factory operating rate has remained high at 90% or more, but still showing the current PTA tight balance of supply and demand situation. According to China Chemical Fiber Association statistics, in 2009 production capacity of polyester added 1.3 to 26.22 million tons. Starts at the current rate of 76.5% calculated polyester, PTA at 1.5 million tons on demand. The end of 2009, PTA production capacity 14.96 million tons, an average of 92% if early March operating rate calculation, PTA monthly when the 1.15 million tons.

Import side, as the Ministry of Commerce anti-dumping investigation, the basic Thai products can not enter the Chinese market, while Korean products spread in the case of no suitable amounts also imports the drop, chemical fiber industry began with the follow-up rates have increased, from the upstream cost pressure is still there. The reason we believe that follow-up chemical industry operating rates will increase, not only because polyester industry, the current operating rate of 76.5% is not very high, and because chemical products are more significant recent price increases, profits will be thickened stimulate manufacturers to increase production. For the downstream chemical fiber textiles, the weaving operation rate to rise to around 70% of recent textile "labor shortage" eased, textile production and stocking active in the restoration, the China Textile City daily trading volume has increased to 250 10,000 meters above. Then, the recovery in the industry chain from the bottom up process, because the textile business is relatively weak bargaining power, so chemical products prices in the industry chain, the most obvious.

The above, we judge these industries are chemical> PTA> Textile. For the terminal for the apparel industry, in February 2010 the domestic apparel exports 8.071 billion U.S. dollars, up 96.56 percent year on year respectively. Increase compared to January of the year, representing a marked increase in a single month. The main reason is the relationship between the base last year (the high base last year in January, February is very low base). Statistics show that in February before total domestic textile and apparel exports grew 29.02%. From the fourth quarter of 2009, there are some signs of recovery in exports, export prices and order structure of the lowest point in early 2009 when the relative apparent recovery, but from the 2007/2008 peak boom years of the industry are still gaps. Major markets in Europe and America from the recent consumption data to see the clothing is still in the bottom of the slow recovery, not growth. Round of financial crisis on the foreign consumer spending, consumer expectations and the impact of consumer habits resulting expected to continue longer. On the other hand, domestic sales to maintain good growth. National Bureau of Statistics data show that in February 2010, total retail sales of social consumer goods grew 17.9%, while total retail sales of clothing and shoes of consumer goods grew 23.3%, 5.4 percentage points more than the social average. Although this one has some holiday discount promotion factors, but for many years clothing retail sales growth significantly exceeded the average growth rate of the condition of society, reflecting the continued strong growth of domestic industry. From exports and domestic sales data, the apparel industry's recovery is determined. However, due to its upstream chemical fiber industry, changes in income than the cost of more flexible, so the recovery of the terminal is the chemical industry to bring more prosperity.

by: gaga

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