The Restructuring Of The U.s. Economy And Prospects
The international financial crisis, especially since the Obama administration, the United States adopted a series of economic policy measures to ease the crisis and promoting economic recovery, but also focus on the U.S. economy's long-term problem to solve, start economic restructuring.
Economic restructuring, the United States is the direct cause of financial crisis, but deeper look, its economic structure and growth mode of long-term serious problem, and to an unsustainable state.
Over-reliance on unsustainable consumption growth mode. Over the years, the U.S. economy from the culture of consumerism defined. His success depends on individual consumption and consumption of what the number; economic health depends on whether or how much consumption, rather than the number produced. Personal consumption expenditure to GDP ratio to 72% before the crisis, rapid expansion of personal debt. In 2007, U.S. household debt accounted for the proportion of disposable income over 130%, while the savings rate fell to zero or even negative. Financial crisis showed that the heavy debt to the Americans and the U.S. economy is facing great danger.
Trade imbalances, especially the situation of unsustainable surge in imports. Over the past 10 years, the growing U.S. trade imbalance, in 2006, the U.S. current account deficit to GDP ratio reached a record 6.8%. As most of the low price of consumer goods no longer produced in the United States, a substantial increase in demand of consumers mainly rely on imports to meet, Juda imbalance in the development of economic globalization and the U.S. industrial adjustment, the inevitable result of the transfer.
"De-industrialization" and the virtual economy is facing severe challenges. Especially since the 80s of last century, with the quickening of economic globalization and the spread of information technology, the U.S. experienced a massive "de-industrialization" process. A large number of manufacturing to overseas, especially to emerging economies. As of 2008, the manufacturing share of GDP is about 12%. The services sector in particular, the rapid development of financial services, which represented the financial derivatives and the growth of virtual economies of scale is much larger than the real economy. Virtual economy over-expanded, easy to form a bubble, disrupting financial order, the impact the normal operation of the real economy and development.
The basis of long-term economic competitiveness increasingly eroded. Long-term U.S. competitiveness not only by the constraints of rising labor costs, but also by domestic infrastructure, health care and education issues such as increasing the drag on their business costs. Over the past 10 years, since the U.S. financial constraints, inadequate investment in infrastructure, a large number of bridges, communication facilities obsolete. U.S. health insurance system is inefficient, domestic 4700 million people without health insurance, health insurance in recent years to cover the cost of growth is the wage growth of 3 times. U.S. health care costs account for 17% of the gross domestic product (only 9% in other developed countries), the majority of enterprises, especially SMEs, higher costs, which restrict the international competitiveness of the United States. With the aging of the population trends, future economic development of the United States will be overwhelmed.
"Market fundamentalism" increasing failure. Since the early 80s of last century, privatization, democracy and the market self-regulation as the United States and other Western countries, economic governance and economic policies guiding ideology theory has also become the United States in the global implementation of financial liberalization theory. The United States adopted a laissez faire policy concept of economic and financial fields full implementation of deregulation measures.
Because the lack of regulation, financial innovation and development has been distorted, out of control real estate development, which ultimately led to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the international financial crisis.
The prospect of adjustment
Currently, the U.S. is relying on its technology, resources, and market mechanisms to promote favorable conditions for economic restructuring and recovery of the world economy continues its adjustment is also provided a good external environment. Restructuring of the U.S. economy may be national and global economic growth have a positive impact. Encourage innovative measures to promote enterprise R & D activities, increase in infrastructure and education, investment, help to promote long-term economic growth. On the development of clean energy and other new industries, its economic and social long-term benefits will be significantly greater than the short-term benefits. These new industries will likely be future U.S. economic growth point, and may be highlight of the global economic sustainable development. Strengthening the financial regulatory reform also helps prevent future financial crises.
However, the U.S. economic restructuring is a long and difficult process, will be constrained by many factors. First, the adjustment is subject to huge budget deficits. Adjustment of economic structure needs the support of enormous financial resources, only health care reform will require 940 billion U.S. dollars, while the financial crisis has left a huge deficit to the government side effects. 2010 federal budget deficit and national debt will reach 1.56 trillion U.S. dollars and 9.2 trillion dollars, according to forecasts, the next 10 years will be 1 trillion annual deficit, total debt to GDP ratio will reach 90%. Stretched the U.S. government to face financial difficulties, even the best ideas of reform and adjustment programs, also because of the lack of adequate financial support and difficult to implement. Second, the industry much. As the United States and high labor costs, the traditional manufacturing industry in the lack of competitive advantage, while the clean energy and other new technology industrialization, take time, "re-industrialization" process would falter. Third, major reforms will face many political obstacles. Whether it is health care reform, or financial reforms, would have a huge impact on a number of vested interests will inevitably meet with strong resistance. In addition, the expansion of export prospects uncertain. Within the next few years, Europe and Japan slow economic recovery, the United States is difficult to expect the expansion of other developed countries.
China and other Asian emerging economies, strong growth is the expansion of major export markets, the United States. The United States to adjust economic structure, without China's co-ordination and cooperation. Not long ago, the second round held in Beijing China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue that the parties recognize that to achieve sustainable economic development in shared responsibility, commitment to their promotion of a more balanced economic growth. Undoubtedly, this is the 21st century to build a positive, cooperative and comprehensive needs of Sino-US relations, but also the United States needs to readjust the economic structure of a step.
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