subject: Himfr.com Reports China's Foreign Trade Situation In 2010 Under Pressure To Increase Exports [print this page] Judging from the current situation analysis in 2010, slow recovery of the world economy is expected to occur, China's foreign trade environment faced by the general trend towards improvement. The International Monetary Fund predicted that the global economy in 2010 will grow 3.1%, which will grow 1.3% in developed countries, emerging economies and developing countries will grow 5.1%. National policies and measures to stabilize the financial markets achieved significant results, financial market risk reduction, financing functions are gradually being restored, reflecting the international financial market liquidity and risk level of LIBOR / OIS spread and TED spread has dropped significantly from pre-crisis levels, enhanced the confidence of financial institutions lending. The joint efforts of the international community, international financial institutions and regional financial institutions to raise large funds, specifically for foreign trade enterprises to provide liquidity support to troubled by the problem of financing of international trade to alleviate to some extent, help enterprises to develop foreign trade. However, as the world economic recovery is inadequate, and many deep-seated contradictions and problems yet to be fundamentally resolved, the world economic recovery will be arduous, and the international market demand can hardly be clearly recovered the short term, China's foreign trade development is still faced with many uncertain factors of instability:
- World economic recovery is slow, difficult to external demand rebounded sharply. Fiscal and monetary policies of major developed countries the expansion of the limited space in the United States for fiscal year 2009 budget deficit to reach 1.4 trillion U.S. dollars, is 3.1 times the 2008 fiscal year, the deficit rate of 10%, hitting a new high since World War II, Germany, France and other countries the fiscal deficit rate of more than 3% of the control objectives, the Japanese budget deficit rate of 9.4%, national benchmark interest rates at historic lows. The employment situation has improved in general lagging behind economic recovery, the major economies, the unemployment rate may continue to deteriorate, consumption and investment, significant improvement in self-growth is difficult to technological progress as the support of the new economic growth point of not yet formed. Affected by this, the world economy and international market demand, a sharp rebound in the short term is difficult.
- The major economies, self-employed has increased, and trade protectionism is increasing. As the world economy recovering from recession, due to the economic recovery process in different countries, international policy, less willingness to cooperate and coordinate more difficult to deal with bad will affect the world economy, the recovery process. In the domestic pressure, the major economies will therefore be further enhanced self-care, will give priority to solving domestic employment, industrial development and other issues, continue to produce a variety of trade restrictions and protective measures, trade protectionism will be increasingly exacerbated. Even if the world economic recovery, international trade will not be a sharp rebound. The International Monetary Fund predicted that the global trade in goods in 2010 increased by only 2.7%, lower than the expected world economic growth.
- International market competition is more intense pressure to increase exports to China. Of the international financial crisis, developed countries proposed to revitalize the manufacturing sector, a number of countries also indicated that through expanding exports to ease domestic trade deficit. The overall competitiveness of exports of many developing countries to rise further and may continue to compete by means of currency depreciation international markets. This will enable high-end product areas of China in the face of direct competition in developed countries, in the traditional areas of superior products in developing countries face more challenges.
- International commodity prices may be high volatility, business increased risk. As the world economy is recovering and in 2010 global resources and energy demand has gone up, in the ultra-low interest rates and loose monetary policy in the context of speculation and the dollar lower and other factors are likely to push commodity prices pushed up China's enterprises The import and export costs. Once the world economic recovery, the setbacks, the international commodity prices may be high volatility in import and export of Chinese enterprises to increase operational risks. In addition, the face of increasingly fierce international competition, China's exports will face more downward pressure on prices, corporate profit margins will be further reduced, undermining China's capacity for sustained development.
At the same time, we must also maintain the development of China's foreign trade there are many favorable conditions and positive factors:
- Complete range of Chinese industries, enterprises and competitive. Since reform and opening, China has vigorously develop modern industries and new industries, industrialization has made great progress, forming a relatively complete industrial system, manufacturing and industrial supporting capacity to increase substantially for the development of foreign trade provided a solid foundation. China has a large number of high-quality work force, production efficiency is high. Products exported are mostly in the middle and low, mainly daily necessities, the elasticity of demand is small, the impact of the crisis is relatively light. Coupled with the high cost of Chinese products, some of the original purchase of high-end products to foreign consumers may turn to buy Chinese products, but will increase the demand for Chinese products. Especially in recent years, China's import and export enterprises have experienced a yuan appreciation, export tax rebate rate cut and the processing trade policy tightening, labor costs, shrinking external demand, such as the test of the ability to respond to complex changes in the environment continuously enhance our competitiveness has improved significantly with .
- Emerging market trade, small-scale development of a large space. Over the years, trade between China and emerging markets, the relative size too small, although in recent years with the implementation of the strategy of market diversification, China's emerging economies and developing countries, sustained and rapid growth of trade, but the size of the proportion of total trade is still not high, the bilateral trade volume between the two sides do not match the economies of scale, development is very big. As these countries and regions growing economic strength, China's market diversification strategy further in-depth implementation of the growing trade facilitation, developing relations with China, trade between the promising emerging markets.
- "Going out" in the ascendant, to stimulate exports effects are obvious. In recent years, Chinese enterprises "going out" significantly speeding up the advantages of a large number of domestic enterprises have to go abroad in the world actively carried out within the framework of foreign investment, project contracting and labor service cooperation, the use of the two markets and two resources the ability to continuously enhance in the development of the local economy and employment but also promote exports of domestic products. After the outbreak of the financial crisis, some foreign companies out of financial difficulties and wish to enhance international cooperation in some countries and regions, the relatively liberal foreign investment policies, and substantial investment in infrastructure to stimulate the economy, which are for Chinese enterprises "going out" provides a good opportunity for . With the "going out" implementation of the strategy, Chinese enterprises will be more extensively involved in the process of global economic integration among the jointly promote world economic recovery and prosperity will also become a focal point an important channel for the export of Chinese products.
Comprehensive analysis, in 2010 China's foreign trade environment faced by the general to the good, but also face many uncertain factors of instability. We want to see the positive changes in China's foreign trade development and favorable conditions to further enhance the development of confidence; be full of the estimated complexity of the situation, grim and uncertainty to all aspects of the difficulties and risks to consider more fully some, to cope with various challenges in doing a more solid number, and further implement and improve policies and measures to support development of foreign trade to improve the policy relevance and effectiveness. Enterprises to strengthen their own management, hard training basic skills, speed up the pace of scientific and technological innovation, and further optimize the import and export commodity structure, change the mode of efforts to promote the development of foreign trade and promote healthy and stable development of foreign trade.
by: Frbiz
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