subject: UFC: Lesnar vs. Carwin Betting Preview [print this page] UFC: Lesnar vsUFC: Lesnar vs. Carwin Betting Preview
Betting on the UFC is getting bigger with every event. With UFC 116 this coming weekend, there is no reason to think that the betting action will be at an all time high. After almost a year away from the octagon, UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar makes his long awaited return this Saturday evening. Possibly the biggest fight in the history of mixed martial arts (MMA), online sports books are expecting record setting MMA betting action. His opponent is the heavy hitting and interim champ Shane Carwin.
This fight was supposed to happen last autumn; however, Lesnar was forced to pull out due to a near fatal intestinal illness. Now supposedly back 100%, Lesnar is ready to step back into the octagon with the knockout specialist, Carwin.
Due to Lesnar's long layoff, Carwin won the interim heavyweight title by knocking out former champ Frank Mir in the first round this past March. Now it's time to unify the belts and to see who is the best heavyweight in the UFC. According to the online sportsbooks, it appears as that title belongs to Lesnar as he is the -150 favorite. However, the early bettors disagreed betting backing the underdog Carwin. You can currently bet on Carwin at +120.
If you have seen Carwin fight, you can't argue with why the early bettors hopped on his generous betting odds. All Carwin has done as a professional fighter is accumulate a flawless 12-0 record. Even more impressive is the fact that all 12 of his victories ended in the first round. Since entering the UFC four fights ago, he KO'd or TKO'd each of his opponents by devastating fashion.
The one time World Wrestling Entertainment superstar, Lesnar is still very raw. He has been defeating guys on sheer size, strength and athleticism. However, he was an All-American amateur wrestler in college, winning the NCAA heavyweight championship in 2000 so he does have the skills to dominate if the fight hits the ground. A physically imposing force, Lesnar has just four fights under his UFC belt posting a 3-1 record. In the octagon, he just uses his brute force to overpower his opponent which often leads to some devastating ground and pound.
Weighing in at 265 pounds and a physique straight out of the NFL, Carwin is probably the only heavyweight in the UFC that has a chance against Lesnar from a physical standpoint. Carwin also comes from an accomplished amateur wrestling background winning the NCAA Division II National Championship in 1999.
When handicapping these odds, one must consider a few questions:
1. If the fight goes past the first round, how will Carwin look?
Again, Carwin has yet to have to answer the second round bell due to ending each of his 12 fights in the first round. If he can't finish Lesnar early, how will be fair?
2. What kind of chin does Lesnar have?
With the biggest fists in the UFC, it is no secret Carwin will be looking for an early KO. Brock hasn't faced anyone with the punching power Carwin possesses and quite frankly, hasn't been hit hard as of yet. How will Lesnar react if Carwin lands one square on the jaw?
3. Will Lesnar's layoff affect his performance?
Lesnar last fought on July 11, 2009. Will he have ring rust' and did his near fatal illness take a serious toll on his body? No matter how hard they train, UFC fighters often struggle coming back from long layoffs.
For those betting on this fight, don't be surprised if the odds creep up a bit. It is doubtful they will go any lower. Oddsauthority is expecting the late money to come in from the novice UFC bettors on the bigger name Lesnar, thus increasing Carwin's betting value as the fight approaches.
Pick: Lesnar (-150)
Despite Carwin's size and punching prowess, Lesnar is just too big. Expect Lesnar to overpower Carwin against the cage eventually taking the fight to the ground. Once on the ground, Lesnar will use his superior wrestling skills and win by ground and pound TKO.
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