subject: Does International Commercial Arbitration Have A Destination? [print this page] In giving an overview of potential future trends, there is obviously an element of "crystal ball gazing", and the following suggestions are just my thoughts that are designed to encourage debate.
It is possible to perceive the following trends in international commercial arbitration, in that there is likely to be:
(1) More increase in the number of arbitration cases; (2) Increase in the number of arbitration centres in places like Asia, The Middle East, Russia, and South America, to meet the demands for arbitration; (3) A greater equability of the rules and laws governing international arbitration; (4) A chance of further "judicialisation" of arbitration (unless restrained); (5) An ongoing rise in international bilateral investment treaty arbitration; (6) An increasing differences in the subject matter of international arbitration; (7) Increasing use of mediation and other forms of Alternative Dispute Resolution.
The most obvious future trend for international commercial arbitration is that the number of cases is increasing. With the continuing expansion of international trade and investment, the number of arbitration cases in general will increase. In particular, the Far Eastern "boom" in arbitration is part of a global phenomenon. There is also a considerable increase in arbitration in Russia and South America.
The expansion of large companies into the emerging markets has made arbitration increasingly popular. With domestic courts in such countries often unpredictable, with high risk of corruption, companies view arbitration as a more reliable and neutral option. Another attraction is that hearings are held in private, away from the scrutiny of politicians, shareholders and the media.
Statistics are not yet available to show the number of ad hoc arbitrations but the most established centres of arbitration report an increasing upsurge in demand.
New arbitration centres have been established to service the new level of businesses in Asia and the Middle East. In particular, in April 2009 LCIA opened its satellite branch in New Delhi, India, to create the first LCIA independent office outside London. This adds to LCIA's previous joint venture in February 2008 with the Dubai International Financial Centre to form DIFC-LCIA.
The ICC also has, since 2008, had a branch of the Secretariat of the Court in Hong Kong and in Singapore, which has added to the dispute resolution options previously available to parties doing business in the Asia Pacific region. To reflect increasing international commercial trade, the balance of which is inexorably tipping geographically eastwards, it is anticipated that there will be considerable growth in international arbitration in India, China, and the Middle East. There is also likely to be growth in Russia (and its neighbouring countries) and South America.
by: Hefin Rees
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