subject: Exiting a Difficult ES E-Mini Trade [print this page] Exiting a Difficult ES E-Mini Trade
There are a number of proscribed methodologies for exiting an e-mini trade, but sometimes the best laid plans seem to go awry. Generally speaking, I pay close attention to the Average True Range and existing support and resistance when considering a trade entry. In most cases these measures can assure a reasonably predictable range to expect on the profit side. On the other hand, the ES e-mini can as unpredictable as a wild bear. There are no guarantees, and a trade proceeding along a nice profitable path can quickly reverse field and become a nightmare, if you let it.
In theory stops are fairly easy to pick out and implement. An actual trading, you can throw theory out the window because the markets care little about your theory or what you expect to happen. The tendency of markets to be less than predictable is a major component that all traders must take into consideration. The last thing any trader desires is to end up 10 or 12 ticks on the wrong side of a trade. In short, exiting trades can be a dicey endeavor and things do not always proceed as planned.
So what do you do to handle that volatility?
It's important to understand that the market can change directions, even mid-trend, and turn against you. You must have a plan for this eventuality.
One of the most important factors in this conundrum is to learn to act quickly and decisively. It is common to watch traders let their trade slide into negative territory, hoping it will return to profitability, only to have the trade continue into negative territory until it hits the traders stop loss. This is the worst of all eventualities.
While I am in a trade, I pay close attention to current support and resistance and market internal indicators so that I can observe the general direction, or change of direction, the market may pursue.
When I perceive that a trade is not going to materialize in the fashion I have envisioned, I am quick to exit the trade and look for a new and better trade to enter.
This line of thinking can sometimes be maddening, because a small change in direction a reverse back into positive territory and end up being a positive gainer. I have no problem with this, as my primary goal is preservation a capital and when I perceive imminent risk I would rather err on the side of safety versus the potential for letting a trade run into my stop losses.
It is been my observation that one of the toughest trades most new and inexperienced traders face is cutting losses. This is not hard to understand, as most traders enter a trade with the expectation of making money. But that is where the difficulties begin; what a trader wants and what the market offers are two very different concepts. The market cares nothing about what and individual trader expects in his or her trade; the market is a soulless being and only reflects the general consensus of the millions of traders who are currently active trading. Still, it is very difficult for a trader to let go of his or her expectations and he or she will tend to hang on to the bitter end in an effort to reach those goals.
A better approach is to observe what the market is offering and gauge your trades accordingly. I have no trouble taking a $50 loss in lieu of being stopped out for $400 or $500. Yet it is not uncommon to see a trade that has drawn far into negative territory, only to return to breakeven, but watch a trader hang on to that trade in hopes that it will continue in his predetermined direction. Here he or she will refuse to trade out of the trade because their expectation is for that big winner. Invariably, the market moves opposite their expectation and they suffer a major loss.
In summary, it is essential to maintain flexibility in your exit strategy. While many trades will go according to plan, there are some trades that simply will not go according to plan and the trader needs to make adjustments to his or her thinking to minimize loss. These adjustments may entail taking a very small loss and exiting the trade. We have pointed out that many traders are loath to take a small loss and will hang on to a trade, despite obvious market indications, to the bitter end. Trades that have gone the wrong way, even on the best setups, take special management to minimize loss, and there is no good reason to allow you to be stopped out with a large loss when that loss could have easily been minimized earlier in the trading process. In short, expectations for a trade often indicate an emotional attachment to a trading position and a failure to observe what the market is actually offering, good or bad. Your ability to adjust to market conditions during a trade will greatly affect your profitability in the trading profession.
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