subject: China and Taiwan: A Crisis? [print this page] China and Taiwan: A Crisis?
China and Taiwan have been and will continue to be a cause for much unrest in the Eastern Asian area. The purpose of this paper is to explore the issue in depth and discover the sequence of events best suited to Taiwan's interests and future well-being. In doing so, I will delve into the likely scenarios as well as events tied to them that would likely occur. With the United States having taken a major role in the evolution of Taiwan in the last 60 years, there is a major conflict between the US and China over this issue. Taiwan itself has evolved into a bona-fide Asian power, with a per-capita GDP nearly 6 times that of China; however, it is still not recognized as a country and will continue not to be while China has a say in the matter. From my research, I have concluded that the outcome best suited to Taiwan's future well-being is to become one with China under a negotiated offer; any other outcome would involve world militaries and Taiwan would be stuck in the middle, undergoing devastation.
Were Taiwan to accept one of China's offers of reunification, there would be significant implications for the rest of the world. Taiwan is one of the major powers in Asia, at least economically; its merging with China would create a major sting for democracy in Asia. Taiwan would likely reunify under its own terms, or more succinctly, under revised Chinese terms. This would entail their political system being allowed to remain as well as their army being able to remain; in addition, it's likely that it could negotiate some sort of shared-sovereignty agreement with the PRC. Given the business interests of Taiwan, this may well be the preferred option for them, since it does not sacrifice their close economic ties with China(Shirk). The United States, however, would find this outcome to be utterly unacceptable; however, were it voluntary, they would be unable to do anything militarily. Economically, there is a huge vested interest for the US in Taiwan staying independent; the semiconductor industry in the country is the most advanced in the world, as well as supplying the Pentagon with many of its chips(Tkacic). This outcome seems increasingly more plausible as Taiwanese opinion shifts to the more moderate side and China becomes increasingly more agitated to achieve reunification; in addition, as Hu gains clout, he will gain the ability to bargain more with Taiwan without seeming weak(Shirk).
It is clear that reunification with China is the better option for Taiwan; while it does not suit Western interests nor does it truly fit in with the status quo in Taiwan, it is a small price to pay not to have a growing giant looming over its head in the future. There is no question that China would not back down from its insatiable desire for Taiwan, nor could it if it wanted to. It would be a significant hamper to Taiwan to see China's military rapidly growing across the border and posing a constant threat. To alleviate that threat and go with an agreement that allows the preservation of most of what it's worked for utterly usurps the prospect of becoming the next big warzone and undergoing an indeterminate period of time at war. The West has a great amount of interests in the region, but those interests are not as great as China's continued interests are and will be; nor is the West as free or determined to act as China is. Unfortunately for Taiwan, it seems likely that it will maintain the uncertainty that's been the norm in their relations with China and the US for the last thirty plus years. There's no reason to think that the Taiwanese will suddenly wish to merge with the Chinese unless there is something drastic done, at which point it will be rather too late to do it on their own terms.
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